PEKING’S NEW CULTURAL REVOLUTION AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS-1974 February 12

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Summary: The Anti-Confucian Campaign In China Has Now Washed Onto The Edges Of Foreign Affairs. The Reassertion Of Radi- Calism On Domestic Issues Has Resulted In A More Doctrinaire Portrayal Of Capitalist Countries As Well As A Sharpen- Ing Of Animosity And A Thumbing Of The Nose At The Soviet Union. While The Interpretation Of Detente Within The Regime Has Shifted To The Left, Mao And The Leftist Leaders Have Continued To Signal Their Endorsement Of The Concept Of An Expedient Entente With The Capitalist Powers Against The Soviet Union. In Order To Accommodate Both The Domestic Political Climate And Changes In The World Scene, Chou And The Moderate Groups Have Presumably Agreed To Modification In Some Limited Aspects Of Foreign Relations.

While Chou Probably Hopes To Restrict The Adjustments To The Cultural, Informational And Propaganda Fields, It Is Possible That The Leftist Trend Could Also Lead To More Verbal Atten- Tion To Fraternal Communist Groups, To Some Reduction Of Whole Plant Purchases And To More Criticism Of Us Policies In The Third World. End Summary.

1. Last Summer In Peking, A Leftist Point Of View On Foreign Affairs Began To Emerge. This Viewpoint, While Accepting The Rationale And Tenets Of Detente With The West And Japan Be- Gan To Underscore The Dangers Of Moral Contamination And Sub- Version At Home. The Leftists Sought To Underscore The In- Herent Evil Of The Monopoly Capitalist Societies, Particularly The Us And To Stress The Expedient And Always Tenuous Nature Of Detente With Class Enemies (HONG Kong 8459, 1973).

2. This Divergent And More Doctrinaire View, Which Was Manifested At The 10th Party Congress Last September, Was Accommodated Within The Bounds Of A Defined Consensus. But As We Noted Then, The Stage Had Been Set For An Es- Calation Of Criticism Should Opportunities Arise (HONG Kong 9796, 1973).

3. After The Congress, Except For Polemical Articles In The New Shanghai Journal, Indications Of Dissatisfaction With The Ideological And Security Fall-Out Of Cultural Ex- Changes Faded. But In The Past Two Months, Several Developments Including The Anti-Confucian Campaign And The Unexpected Economic Crisis In The Capitalist World Have Been Exploited To Transform Ideological Kibitzing On Foreign Relations Into A More Serious Polemic And To Move The Consensus To The Left.

The Anti-Confucian Campaign Has Provided The Context For A Crescendo Of Attacks On Both Western And Soviet Culture And Society, And For An Expose Of Soviet Subversion And Intrigue. The Economic Crisis Has Supplied A Basis For Questioning The Rapid Expansion Of Technology Imports And Of A Too-Sanguine View Of The Near-Term Strength Of The West And Japan.

4. With The New Shanghai Journal Taking The Lead, There Has Been A Rapid Expansion Of Articles Portraying The US As A Decadent “Monopoly Capitalist” Society In The Process Of Total Decay. Beginning In December, Chinese Media Charged That The World Economic Crisis Revealed The Fundamental Weaknesses Of The Capitalist Countries; That Class Struggle Was Sharpening; That Capitalist Technology Was Based On Exploitation; And That China Did Not Need Large Scale Imports.

Moreover In The Past Six Weeks A Sharp Polemical Campaign Has Featured Attacks On Foreign Things And Individual Westerners Ranging From Beethoven To Jonathan Livingston Seagull. Another Sub-Polemic Against The Italian Film Director Antonioni Has Driven Home The Point That While Hostility To China Is Headquartered In Moscow, The Sentiment Also Still Lurks In Capitalist Countries.

5.Japanese Society Has Also Been Rapped, Although More Lightly Than The Us. After Sporadic Warnings In December About The “Vital Weakness Of Japan’s Economy” And The “Abnormaility” Of Its Economic Development, Peking This Month, Issued Its First Public Comment Since The Fall Of 1972 On The Subject Of Japanese Militarism (HONG Kong 1244).

6. Concurrent With Criticism Of The Capitalists, Peking’s Treatment Of The Soviet Union Similarly Sharpened. Since January Peking Has Exhorted The Soviet People To Overthrow Their Regime, Marked The Soviet Leadership As A Target In The “Confucian Shop,” And By Its Handling Of The Diplomatic Espionage Case Deliberately Stirred Up Noxious Fumes In Sino-Soviet Relations.

7. Despite These Shifts In Propaganda, Mao And The Leftist Leaders Have Continued To Signal Their Endorsement Of The Concept Of An Expedient Entente With The Capitalist Powers Against The Soviet Union (Most Recently By Mao, Chou, And Wang Hung-Wen’s Reception Of Ohira). Moreover, Chou Still Minces No Words In His Private Discussions Of The Mutual Need For Detente And Central Media Continue To Reflect The Premier’s View Of Power Diplomacy(Hong Kong 1419).

Thus There Is No Indication Of Any Significant Group Or Individual At This Time Opposing Mao’s Revolutionary Diplomatic Line, Including The Aspects Of Detente With The West And Japan. What Is Apparently Being Criticized Is The Manner Of Implementation Of The Agreed Policy. To Some Leaders Detente Meant Wide Cultural Exchanges And Large-Scale Purchases Of Technology. To Others It Did Not.

8. So Far The Shift To The Left In The Interpretation Of Detente Has Been Limited To A More Dogmatic Verbalization Of The Regime’s Ideological View Of The West As Well As The Soviets; A Restriction Of Cultural Exchanges; And A Cooling Of Relations Generally With Foreigners In Peking.

9. More Broadly, The Leftist Offensive Has Led To An Increased Nationalistic And Anti-Foreign Mood In China. It Is Possible That The PRC’s Decisive Reaction In The Paracels Dispute Was In Part Shaped By This Mood. However, We Are Inclined To Believe That If The Evil Of Confucius Had Remained Buried With His Bones, The PRC’s Reaction In This Affair Would Have Been The Same (HONG Kong 1036). So Far The Xenophobic Phenomena Remains Quite Limited And It Has Not Resulted In Increased Militancy Or Combativeness In China’s Overall International Behavior. Also, We See No Shift In China’s Peaceful Co-Existence Diplomacy Toward The Third World. From Latin America To Southeast Asia There Is No Evidence At This Point Of A Less Realpolitik Approach.

10. Conclusion: The Neo-Cultural Revolution At Home Is Apparently Being Pushed By The Leftists With Chou And The Moderates Participating. Very Likely The Chouists Are Hoping To Contain The Effects Of The Campaign, But They Seem To Have Accepted A Level Of Political Activity Which At The Very Least Involves Some Tension And Diversion In The Conduct Of Affairs At Home. Likewise, We Imagine That In Order To Accommodate Both The Political Climate And Changes On The World Scene, Chou Has Agreed To Modifications In Some Limited Aspects Of Foreign Relations.

We Believe The Premier Intends To Restrict These Alterations To The Cultural, Informational, And Propaganda Fields. The Doctrinaire Trend, However, Could Also Lead To More Verbal Attention To Fraternal Relations (E.G., With Maoist Groups In Southeast Asia), To Some Re- Duction Of Whole Plant Purchases, And To More Criticism Of U.S. Policies In The Third World. (Peking Media Is Already More Frequently Slipping Into The Old Jargon, For Example In Current- Context References, To “U.S. Imperialist Aggressors.”)

11. It Is, Of Course, Impossible To Predict With Confidence The Course Of The Present Internal Campaign And Its Effect On External Relations. As The Cultural Revolution Showed, Once Mass Participation Has Begun It Is Difficult To Restrict Issues And To Define Parameters. At This Point We Feel That The Fundamentals Of Detente Will Continue Regardless, But That Its Definition May Narrow And Contain More Ideological Struggle Along With The Expedient Alliance.

Allen

Confidential

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